Analisis Faktor Determinan Sosio-Ekonomi terhadap Rate Kasus HIV di Jawa Barat Menggunakan Regresi Binomial Negatif
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.71417/galen.v2i1.150Keywords:
Determinan Sosio-Ekonomi, HIV/AIDS, Regresi Binomial NegatifAbstract
Provinsi Jawa Barat menghadapi tantangan sebagai provinsi dengan kasus HIV tertinggi di Indonesia di mana data kasusnya berbentuk data hitungan yang terbukti mengalami overdispersi kuat (Dispersion Ratio = 50.804). Penelitian ini bertujuan memodelkan rate kasus HIV di 27 kabupaten/kota (2024) untuk mengidentifikasi faktor sosio-ekonomi yang berpengaruh dan secara lugas membandingkan efektivitas model non-spasial (Global NBR) dengan model spasial lokal (GWPR). Dengan menggunakan variabel respon jumlah kasus HIV (dengan offset populasi) dan 5 variabel penjelas (termasuk pengangguran, nakes, & PUS), metodologi Regresi Binomial Negatif (NBR) dipilih secara definitif di atas Poisson untuk mengatasi overdispersi. Temuan utama penelitian menunjukkan bahwa Model Global NBR (AIC=345.76) secara signifikan lebih baik dan lebih parsimonious (hemat) dibandingkan Model Spasial GWPR (AIC=594.57). Kemenangan model global ini didukung oleh Uji Moran's I pada sisaannya yang membuktikan tidak ada autokorelasi spasial tersisa Model terbaik ini mengidentifikasi tingkat pengangguran terbuka sebagai faktor risiko, sementara jumlah tenaga kesehatan (positif) dan jumlah PUS (negatif) teridentifikasi sebagai anomali statistik signifikan yang mengindikasikan adanya Ecological Fallacy dan bias surveilans pelaporan.
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